Despite CDC’s recommendations- there are nuances of vaccination and prevention which need greater and more in-depth examination.
From all data, it is clear that the ANTIBODY levels from vaccination begin to wane from the last dose. Most studies are from mRNA vaccines. Of interest, and mostly ignored, is the fact that ANTIBODY level is NOT EQUAL to immunity. Immunity is a function of several factors- and the key is the presence of ready and educated cells within the bone marrow. These are impossible to measure and difficult to assay. These are also the cells that would mount a response when confronted by the virus in a natural infection- quickly and effectively.
Human beings have survived this long evolutionarily by being able to have an immune system that has the remarkable ability to be educated, and that is in delicate, yet robust balance in maintaining natural health.
It is, however, known that natural infection confers more robust immunity that lasts longer than that induced by fragment vaccines. Yet, the unpredictable nature of natural infection and its natural history in a random unvaccinated individual make this a risky method to acquire immunity. There are studies that conclude that getting an mRNA vaccine after initial AZ/Oxford confers a stronger immune response. Also, that the other way round offers no significant advantage.
As of now- it is more important to have UNIVERSAL COVERAGE of the population, especially high-risk groups. And here I do not mean this in the traditional sense of co-morbidity and age. Here, I mean it in the sense of risk of exposure. So long as even one person is available for virgin infection, there is a statistically significant chance of the emergence of variants.
The thing about present vaccines- a miracle though they are- is that they do not provide STERILISING immunity. And they are not 100% effective. That means, it is possible to get infected even if you are vaccinated- though the infection will be less severe. Which, in turn means, that it is possible to transmit this infection to others. And because you may not suffer too severe a disease, you may not even realise that you are infected. Even more reason to follow Covid Appropriate Behaviours (CAB). Seriously. Diligently.
Hence, deeper and wider the vaccination coverage, less the chance of severe disease and more the chance of natural immunity. Paradoxically, also more the chance of emergence of variants in the absence of CAB. There is a nuanced dance between breaking the chain of transmission and preventing severe infection that will ultimately beat the virus.
Covid appropriate behaviours, diligent watch for weekly trends- rising or falling and, chemoprophylaxis with Ivermectin and Zinc would be more appropriate even for those of us who are fully vaccinated.
The US is in a unique, and unenviable situation where their first and second waves were powered by variants that were of a less sinister biological behaviour. The third wave- driven by Delta, completely derailed them. Currently, their numbers are almost 100% Delta. The bad thing about Delta is also the good thing about Delta. The fact that it is so highly transmissible that it infects EVERYONE IT TOUCHES is also the reason NO OTHER VARIANTS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO OCCUPY THE SAME REAL ESTATE! And hence, there has been a slump in the emergence of newer and more sinister variants.
And our second wave was Delta driven. We have a population immunity that is fast reaching the stage of herd protection. Even the 12–18-year-olds, by ICMR estimates, have a seroprevalence of nearly 70% (67%, to be exact). Thus, the WHO statement proposes that India is in the stage of possible endemicity where we may expect pockets of outbreaks but would be largely protected from the terror of something similar to the last wave. That is not to say that we should not care or give up on precautions- those are here to stay. For a while to come. We need to watch for the approaching festive season- if we are able to control population behaviours then, we will emerge on the other side without the need for boosters.
Even Pfizer and Moderna might by then, come up with appropriately updated booster vaccines to cover the emerging strains, including Delta.
To conclude-
Precautions- YES
Boosters — MAY BE. But not now
Which boosters? Still a big question.
The tragic polarisation and politicisation of the pandemic, and the response to the pandemic is a huge disservice to public health initiatives and a big loss for science in general. To be opposed to something simply because you belong to a political/ ideological affiliation is not only stupid and unscientific, it is also extremely dangerous.
It is time to raise the quiet, logical, scientific voice.
It is time to create a space for scientific discussion or even debate.
It is time for ALL of us to decide who will win- the virus? Or Humanity?
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